North Korea's Succession Narrative Reinforcement and the Complexity of Inter-Korean Relations: Political Ramifications of the North Korea Remittance Controversy

Overview

This report analyzes North Korea's recent efforts to establish an internal power succession narrative and its strategy for messages directed at South Korea, alongside South Korea's complex policy environment towards the North. It specifically focuses on Kim Ju Ae's public activities to strengthen her image as a potential successor and Kim Yo Jong's role in inter-Korean communication. Concurrently, it cross-analyzes North Korea's unusually positive reaction to the South Korean President's expression of regret regarding a drone incursion and the South Korean government's expectations, exploring potential shifts in inter-Korean relations. Additionally, it thoroughly examines the domestic political controversy surrounding the Ssangbangul North Korea remittance case and concerns about the impartiality of the prosecutorial investigation, diagnosing the complex dynamics of the Korean Peninsula. This analysis continues the existing series, "North Korea's Internal Control and Image Strategy and South Korea's Response: Defense Reinforcement and North Korea Remittance Controversy."

Background & Context

Since Kim Jong Un's ascent to power, North Korea has highlighted the roles of women such as Choe Son Hui and Ri Sol Ju, with the presence of Baekdu bloodline members Kim Yo Jong and Kim Ju Ae becoming particularly prominent¹. While this raises questions about women's actual political power and clear succession possibilities within North Korea's opaque decision-making structure and patriarchal norms, it is also interpreted as part of an image strategy to consolidate power. Meanwhile, South Korea's North Korea policy has long been criticized for lacking consistency and durability due to ideological differences between conservatives and progressives¹⁰. In this situation, the potential for accidental clashes between the two Koreas persists, and domestic political issues continue to have complex impacts on the implementation of North Korea policy.

Current Situation Analysis

Recently, North Korea is assessed to be actively building a succession narrative through Kim Ju Ae's public appearances. South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported that Kim Ju Ae's appearances, including her driving a new tank and testing a rifle, are "an homage to Kim Jong Un's own succession period," concluding that North Korea is constructing a succession narrative centered on Kim Ju Ae³. This aligns with 38 North's analysis of the rise of female leadership in North Korea¹. Kim Yo Jong continues to play a pivotal role in this process, conveying Chairman Kim Jong Un's messages externally.

Subtle signs of change have been observed in inter-Korean relations. Following President Lee Jae-myung's expression of regret over the drone incursion², Kim Yo Jong, Vice Department Director of the Workers' Party of Korea, conveyed that Chairman Kim Jong Un assessed this as a "frank and magnanimous attitude"^{8, 11, 13, 14}. While some reports attributed the statement to President Yoon Suk Yeol¹², the majority of reports identified President Lee Jae-myung's remarks. In response, the Blue House (Cheong Wa Dae) stated, regarding North Korea's positive assessment, that it "hopes this swift mutual confirmation of intent between the two Koreas can contribute to peace and coexistence on the Korean Peninsula," adding that efforts for peaceful coexistence would continue^{6, 7}. This marks an unusual positive reciprocal reaction amidst strained inter-Korean relations.

Meanwhile, domestic political controversy surrounding the Ssangbangul North Korea remittance case is intensifying in South Korea. The Ministry of Justice suspended Prosecutor Park Sang-yong, who investigated the case, deeming his conduct "significantly inappropriate"⁴. The National Assembly Legislation and Judiciary Committee decided to file a complaint against Prosecutor Park, alleging he gave false testimony in the National Assembly regarding a "salmon and alcohol party" despite it being true^{5, 9, 15}. In this process, the special prosecutor also raised suspicions of the Presidential Office's involvement in the case². These series of actions are amplifying controversy over the impartiality of the prosecutorial investigation and serving as a major source of domestic political conflict.

Entity	Stance and Action Regarding Ssangbangul North Korea Remittance Case	Key Basis
Ministry of Justice	Suspension of Prosecutor Park Sang-yong	Deemed conduct significantly inappropriate4
National Assembly Legislation and Judiciary Committee	Decision to file complaint against Prosecutor Park Sang-yong	Allegation of false testimony in National Assembly (salmon and alcohol party)5, 9, 15
Special Prosecutor	Raised suspicions of Presidential Office involvement	Potential political interference in investigation process2

Outlook & Implications

North Korea is expected to continue building a succession narrative through Kim Ju Ae, reinforcing the legitimacy of power transfer. This could serve as a strategy to demonstrate the stability of the Kim Jong Un regime domestically and internationally, while also enhancing the efficiency of messages delivered to South Korea through Kim Yo Jong. In inter-Korean relations, North Korea's positive reaction to the South Korean President's expression of regret could offer temporary tension reduction or room for dialogue, but whether it will lead to fundamental improvement remains uncertain. The lack of consistency in South Korea's North Korea policy, as pointed out by 38 North, could limit the ability to translate such opportunities into long-term achievements¹⁰. Domestically, political disputes surrounding the Ssangbangul North Korea remittance case are expected to intensify, potentially leading to a decline in public trust in the judicial system and weakening the momentum for North Korea policy implementation.

Kim Yo Jong, Vice Department Director of the Workers' Party of Korea Central Committee, stated on the 6th that regarding President Lee Jae-myung's expression of regret concerning the 'drone incursion incident,' "Our head of state assessed this as showing the attitude of a frank and magnanimous person."⁸

Recommendations

1. South Korean Government: Ensure Consistency in North Korea Policy and Manage Domestic Political Controversies
   • It is necessary to actively consider establishing a body like the 'Blue Ribbon Committee,' as proposed by 38 North, to achieve bipartisan consensus on North Korea policy based on long-term national interests¹⁰.
   • For sensitive domestic political issues such as the Ssangbangul North Korea remittance case, transparent and fair investigation and judicial procedures must be ensured to minimize political uncertainty and secure momentum for North Korea policy implementation.
   • In response to North Korea's construction of a succession narrative through Kim Ju Ae and the emphasis on female leadership, South Korea should strengthen a consistent message strategy for peace and denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula, and develop diverse analyses and response strategies for potential internal changes in North Korea.
2. International Community: Closely Monitor North Korea's Internal Dynamics and Changes in Inter-Korean Relations
   • It is essential to closely analyze North Korea's power succession trends, such as Kim Ju Ae's emergence, and continuously assess the potential for changes in the actual role of female leadership within North Korea's patriarchal social structure.
   • Should subtle interactions between the two Koreas, particularly opportunities for dialogue, be observed, efforts should be made to leverage these to strengthen international initiatives for denuclearization and peace settlement on the Korean Peninsula.

1. 38 North, "The Rise and Limits of Female Leadership in North Korea: An Analysis of Kim Ju Ae and Kim Yo Jong's Roles", Date
2. Chosun Ilbo, "Lee Jae-myung's 'Regret over Drone Incursion' Remarks, Suspicions of Intervention in Ssangbangul North Korea Remittance Investigation", Date
3. Chosun Ilbo, "NIS: 'Kim Ju Ae's Tank Driving, Homage to Kim Jong Un's Succession Period… Building Succession Narrative'", Date
4. Chosun Ilbo, "Prosecutor Park Sang-yong Investigating North Korea Remittance Suspended", Date
5. Chosun Ilbo, "Legislation and Judiciary Committee Decides to File Complaint Against Prosecutor Park Sang-yong in 'Ssangbangul North Korea Remittance Investigation'", Date
6. Chosun Ilbo, "Blue House, Positive Assessment of North Korea's Kim Yo Jong Statement: 'Hopes for Contribution to Peaceful Coexistence'", Date
7. Yonhap News, "Blue House, Positive Reaction to North Korea's Drone-Related Regret: 'Hopes for Contribution to Peaceful Coexistence'", Date
8. Chosun Ilbo, "Kim Yo Jong: 'Kim Jong Un Assessed Lee Jae-myung's Regret as 'Magnanimous Attitude''", Date
9. Yonhap News, "Legislation and Judiciary Committee Decides to File Complaint Against Prosecutor Park Sang-yong in 'North Korea Remittance Investigation'", Date
10. 38 North, "Lack of Consistency in South Korea's North Korea Policy: Proposal for Bipartisan Consensus and New Committee", Date
11. Chosun Ilbo, "Kim Yo Jong Reveals Kim Jong Un's 'Frank and Magnanimous' Assessment of Lee Jae-myung's Drone Regret", Date
12. Yonhap News, "Kim Yo Jong Assesses President Yoon's 'Drone Regret' Remarks as 'Frank and Magnanimous'", Date
13. Yonhap News, "Kim Yo Jong Assesses President Lee Jae-myung's Drone Regret as 'Frank and Magnanimous'", Date
14. NK News, "Kim Jong Un Praises South Korean President's Drone Incursion Regret as 'Frank and Magnanimous Attitude'", Date
15. Chosun Ilbo, "National Assembly Legislation and Judiciary Committee Files Complaint Against Prosecutor Park Sang-yong for 'False Testimony in National Assembly'", Date

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