North Korea's Five-Year Plan and the Complexity of International Development Cooperation: Challenges in Food Security and Regional Development

Overview

North Korea has recently consolidated Chairman Kim Jong Un's power through the 9th Party Congress and the Supreme People's Assembly, announcing a new five-year plan to accelerate food production and regional development^{8, 9, 10}. These internal development efforts are accompanied by strong criticism of cadres' incompetence and irresponsibility, emphasizing a self-reliance policy^{8, 10}. Simultaneously, with limited incentives for dialogue with the United States, North Korea is deepening its ties with Russia and China, declaring its intention to stand at the center of a multipolar world and expand its external influence^{6, 11}. This report analyzes the implications of North Korea's complex internal development strategies and changing external relations for international development cooperation, particularly in food security and the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and proposes directions for future development cooperation with North Korea.

Background and Context

North Korea's economic development has long proceeded under international sanctions and a self-reliance policy. In the past, several five-year plans were established to promote economic development, but they faced difficulties in achieving tangible results due to limitations in external support and internal capacity. North Korea's current five-year plan focuses on expanding food production and regional development as key objectives¹⁰. These initiatives are directly linked to several UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities). However, the declared strengthening and testing of nuclear and missile capabilities¹⁴ continue to be a major factor in maintaining international sanctions against North Korea, further complicating the environment for development cooperation.

Current Situation Analysis

North Korea has consolidated Chairman Kim Jong Un's power through the 9th Party Congress and the 15th Supreme People's Assembly. Prior to the Party Congress, Kim Jong Un strongly criticized cadres' incompetence and irresponsibility, deflecting blame for the limitations of his self-reliance policy onto them^{8, 9}. In line with the five-year plan, North Korea is expanding food production through the completion of the Wonsan General Fishing Implements Factory and District 1 of Aedo Tideland. Cabinet-led construction projects are actively underway, including groundbreaking ceremonies in 20 regions under the 20x10 regional development plan¹⁰.

Externally, with limited incentives for dialogue with the United States, North Korea is deepening its relations with Russia and China, emphasizing the secrecy of its external activities^{6, 11}. Kim Jong Un's direct involvement is expected to further reduce diplomatic flexibility¹¹. Meanwhile, after declaring the strengthening of nuclear weapons and existing nuclear delivery systems at the 9th Party Congress in February, North Korea has accelerated its nuclear and missile capabilities by launching KN-25 short-range missiles from new mobile launchers in January and March, and testing 11 nuclear-capable cruise missiles from a new destroyer in March¹⁴. This increase in security threats contributes to the strengthening of international sanctions against North Korea.

In inter-Korean relations, allegations of "large-scale remittances to North Korea" continue to be raised, intensifying political controversy. Claims that the testimonies of former Ssangbangwool Group Chairman Kim Seong-tae and former Vice Chairman Bang Yong-cheol remain consistent suggest that this issue further complicates the situation on the Korean Peninsula^{1, 5}.

Trends in North Korea's Internal Development and External Relations

Category	Key Trends	Implications for International Development Cooperation
Internal Development	Promotion of five-year plan (food production, regional development), cadre criticism, emphasis on self-reliance8, 10	Potential for SDG linkages, importance of transparency and monitoring, continued humanitarian aid needs
External Relations	Deepening ties with Russia and China, declaration of standing at the center of a multipolar world, lack of US dialogue incentives6, 11	Maintenance of sanctions environment, difficulties in diversifying development cooperation channels, increased geopolitical complexity
Security	Declaration and testing of nuclear and missile enhancements14	Continued and strengthened international sanctions, increased political sensitivity of development cooperation
Inter-Korean Relations	Ongoing allegations of remittances to North Korea1, 5	Political constraints on inter-Korean cooperation, importance of ensuring transparency

Outlook and Implications

North Korea's pursuit of its five-year plan demonstrates internal efforts to enhance food security and address regional imbalances. However, the reliance on a self-reliance policy and mass mobilization through cadre criticism is unlikely to provide fundamental solutions for sustainable development. Particularly, the lack of specific economic improvement measures suggests that without international support, achieving the SDGs will face limitations⁸. Externally, the deepening ties with Russia and China could have complex effects on the implementation of international sanctions against North Korea, and nuclear and missile development is likely to further heighten the political sensitivity of development cooperation. This situation poses significant challenges for international development actors seeking to access and support North Korea's development needs. Ensuring transparency and maintaining the non-political nature of aid will be key considerations.

Policy Recommendations

1. Maintain and Expand Non-Political Approach to Humanitarian Aid: Despite North Korea's efforts to expand food production, humanitarian needs for vulnerable populations are expected to persist. It is necessary to continue and expand humanitarian aid for essential life-sustaining areas such as food, health, and nutrition, based on non-political principles, regardless of the political situation.
2. Identify and Prepare SDG-Linked Development Cooperation Projects: Thoroughly analyze areas within North Korea's five-year plan that can be linked to the SDGs, such as food security, regional development, and infrastructure construction. Develop and prepare actionable project models for immediate implementation should development cooperation with North Korea resume. This approach can address North Korea's practical development needs while contributing to universal international development goals.
3. Assess North Korean Development Needs through Multilateral Cooperation Channels: Strengthen cooperation with UN agencies (e.g., UNDP, FAO, UNICEF) and international non-governmental organizations (INGOs) to continuously gather accurate information on North Korea's internal development needs and vulnerabilities, and based on this, explore effective support measures.
4. Enhance Transparency in Remittances to North Korea and Adhere to International Sanctions: Issues such as allegations of remittances to North Korea can undermine trust in the implementation of international sanctions. It is crucial to enhance transparency for all financial flows related to North Korea and strictly adhere to international sanctions, including UN Security Council resolutions.
5. Explore Resumption of Non-Political Inter-Korean Exchanges: Gradually resume inter-Korean exchanges in non-political fields such as sports, culture, and environment to foster mutual understanding and build trust. This can contribute to paving the way for long-term development cooperation.

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